GS Research – Beverages: A broader view of Beverages from Nielsen’s new AOC database

What is AOC?

This morning, Nielsen released its new AOC (All Outlets Combined) database, which replaces the former FDMx data. AOC covers the same channels as FDMx, but now also includes Wal-Mart, Sam’s Club, other club stores, dollar stores, and military stores. The most current dataset for AOC is through 6/9/12, the same latest period we received for FDMx on June 21.

LRB sales growth is slow and steady: MNST trend strong

Over the latest 52wks, LRB sales growth is +2.1%, with CSD up +1.2% and non-carbs up +4.2%. Within LRB, KO sales are +1.4%, PEP -2%, DPS flat, and MNST +19.4%. MNST’s sales growth is even stronger over the past 12-week period (up +24.5%). KO sales share of LRB is down 10bp with share loss in Bottled Water being offset by gains in RTD Tea. PEP sales share of LRB is down 90 bp primarily due to CSD and Juice – refrigerated. DPS share is down 20 bp, driven by RTD Tea and Juice – shelf stable.

Beer trends look solid in AOC dataset

Over the last 52wks, total Beer sales are up 3.9% on +1.4% volume gain, up from 2.3% sales growth a year ago. The major brewers are still losing share with ABI volume share down 40 bp in the last 52wks and MillerCoors down 90bp, while Crown Imports has been a major share gainer at +30 bp.

Wine sales remarkably steady over the last two years

Over the last 52wks, wine sales are up 6.6% vs. up 6.7% in the year ago period. Pricing has started becoming a larger part of the sales mix and is up 3.4% in the last 12wks vs. up 0.8% in the year ago period. STZ is outperforming in this channel in the latest 12wks at +7.7% sales growth.

Liquor sales accelerated to +7.6% in the latest 52wks

Liquor sales are up 7.6% in the latest 52wks vs. up 4.8% a year ago. BEAM and Brown-Forman have both outperformed in the last year, with sales up 13.3% and 10.3%, respectively.

 Source: Goldman Sachs

Jul 2nd